The Dreaded Play-Offs – How To Get One Over The Villa Obsessed Pulis

Three Things – Middlesbrough in the play-offs

So, here we are at last – the dreaded play-offs. In the 96th minute on Saturday, the footballing gods decreed, through the medium of Patrick Bamford, that it would indeed be Middlesbrough and not Derby. Reunited with our old ‘friends’ Tony Pulis (already playing his pathetic mind games by declaring Boro massive underdogs), Adama Traore and Stewart Downing. But in truth, I think we knew it would be Boro all along.

There is no denying that they have hit their stride since Pulis’ arrival on Teesside. They’ve won four of the last six (and six of the last 11) to see them over the line and boast the fourth-best defence in the Championship, having conceded 45 goals in the 46 games so far. Going forward, they’ve netted 67 times (five fewer than ourselves) with Britt Assombalonga top scorer with 15 league goals.

On paper, then, we are fairly evenly matched, although Villa managed seven more points to secure our fourth-place finish. Away from home, Boro won eight, drew seven and lost eight, the very definition of average. At the Riverside, they were far stronger, winning 14 of their 23 games, drawing three and losing six.

Our final record went thus: at home, W14 D7 L2 while away from B6, we W10 D4 L9. So, this play-off semi-final certainly looks to be the proverbial ‘game of two halves’, where we can expect a result one way or the other at the Riverside (a draw doesn’t look likely based on the stats) and we should be confident of getting a result at our place.

As long as we don’t make a mess of the away leg, I’m feeling pretty confident about making plans for 26th May which involve Wembley tickets and train times, rather than half-term hell with the family.

1. Keep Adama quiet

By all accounts (and judging by the various player of the season awards seemingly garnered by our former headless chicken), Adama is flourishing in the North East under the tutelage of one Tony Pulis, a coach not readily associated with attacking football and flair players.

Certainly, in the (admittedly limited) Boro matches and highlights I’ve seen since the turn of the year, he looks to have improved out of all recognition – he still has pace to burn and he ghosts past players as if they’re not there, but he looks to have added crossing ability – and more importantly decision making – to his game. He looks like the player we hoped he’d be for us.

So, the onus will be on Alan Hutton and Ahmed Elmohamady to use all of their experience to keep a lid on him as much as possible. I have every confidence in our defence to look after Assombalonga and Bamford but keeping Adama (and to a lesser extent Downing) quiet will make life a whole lot easier.

2. Keep it tight in the first leg

Two-legged semi-finals have not always been easy on the mental health of Aston Villa supporters. 3-1 defeats away to Tranmere and Bradford made for unnecessarily difficult second legs (terminal in the case of Bradford) and it would be far better for all concerned if we could come away from Middlesbrough on Saturday evening with a win. If not, I will settle for a draw or even a one-goal defeat.

If the worst happens and Boro manage a convincing win (two goals or more) then even in spite of our excellent home record, I do still worry about the character of our squad in terms of overturning a deficit like that. At a full Villa Park, we could turn in a performance and result like we did against Wolves, but it could just as easily be a QPR-type game if we start two or three goals down.

As I mentioned earlier, I think our defence can handle what Boro have to offer, but in a cup tie-type game, anything can happen. So, we need to be professional on Saturday. We won’t win the tie in the first leg, but we can certainly lose it.

3. Don’t rely on Super Jack

This has been Jack Grealish’s breakthrough season in many ways. Although there are still those who think he needs to add more goals to his game, there can be no doubt that his return from injury coincided with our fine run of form post-Christmas. And you do feel there is more to come from the young man.

But there is so much at stake over the next (hopefully) three matches that everyone needs to come to the party. As I’ve said, we don’t have much to worry about defensively (nor in goal), so it’s now up to the forward players to shine. Because of the pace in Boro’s game, I’d be a bit more inclined to play Bjarnason (if fit) or Whelan ahead of Mile Jedinak (especially away from home), but we also need Hourihane, Snodgrass and Adomah to step up to the plate.

On current form, I’d be more inclined to leave Adomah on the bench and start Grabban wide left with Kodjia through the middle, but maybe the added spice of playing his old club will help Uncle Albert recapture his form and he can add to his 14 goals?

But the main thing is not to rely too much on Grealish. Boro will have him targeted as our key player, so we need our senior players to give them plenty more to think about. On our day, we are more than a match for anyone in the Championship. If we set out on Saturday believing that and playing like we know we can, Wembley will almost be beyond doubt.

I think Bruce’s preferred first team picks itself, but much will depend on whether he feels Adomah can find his form when it matters. If so, we’ll look something like this:

Johnstone, Elmohamady, Chester, Terry, Hutton, Whelan/Bjarnason, Hourihane, Snodgrass, Adomah, Grealish, Grabban.

which I feel gives us a better defensive shape for an away tie (although Grabban does do some excellent work defensively). But as I mentioned, I’d be inclined to push Grabban wide and slot in Kodjia up the middle because I feel that offers us much more going forward, and we have just looked better all round when set up that way. We should fear nobody – we should play our best side and not worry too much about the others.

This is it boys – the final push. The stated aim of promotion is still on, but it’s time to show how much we really want it.

It’s time for the lion to roar again.

Passion. Pride. Purpose. It’s on the screens at Villa Park before every match. Let’s hope the players have been watching.