The Fine % Line Between Success & Failure For Bruce

Back in April, we crunched the numbers to find out Steve Bruce’s win percentage compared to former Aston Villa gaffers.

With plenty of caveats to build in and deal with – they were largely self-evident – the piece garnered a number of requests for Bruce’s comparison to other Championship managers so the win percentage was more relevant to the second tier and his actual performance in our dugout.

How Bad Is Steve Bruce – Let’s Look At What Counts

With the curtain now drawn on the season of 2017/18 and Villa knowing we will spend at least one more year in the Championship following our disappointment against Fulham in the Play-Off Final, whilst real news is low and most, to all, of the transfer speculation can be instantly dismissed when it emanates from outlets that haven’t got the foggiest about Financial Fair Play and the self-admitted situation we now go into on that front, here’s as good a time as any to crunch another set of numbers.

It gives me something to do and keeps me off the streets!

Now, folks will still have some bugbears with this – there is no way I can be that comprehensive so I’ve limited to Bruce’s time in charge of us, so it’s win percentage over the past two seasons only – or a manager’s spell at given relative club at the end of this season.

Where managers have switched around clubs in the Championship, I’ve totted them up as best I could.

To be honest, even if I went into the realms of careers and time spent in the second tier only, the relative merits of squad strength or lack thereof given the managerial merry-go-round would still screw with any concise outcomes.

It should serve the purpose though of demonstrating how well/badly Bruce has done in his time with us compared to others over a similar period.

* – manager didn’t do two years in full.
** – multiple jobs in Championship over last two years.

The first thing that jumps out at me is what the hell was going on at Middlesbrough?!?

Anyway, to maybe provide a better context on Bruce, when you look at those sides promoted during his time with us.

A significant jump from Bruce’s almost two-year average in fairness, and whilst some will point to that as his failure, others will point to turning around the atmosphere at the club, bedding people in and the players we had missing this year yet still kept ourselves in the mix.

Whilst Warnock and Jokanovic more easily lend themselves to doing the numbers for two years. I can’t do that for Santo or Benitez.

Hughton and Wagner, including 2015/16 in the Championship, do read.

Down to each fan to decide, but short of Benitez and Santo, everyone else in recent times has taken two years to put a promotion push in place and I’d argue none of those sides were in the shape we were. Bruce’s first year was about stopping the rot and not necessarily building and he was 3/4% shy when compared to others this season.

That’s not too shabby when you factor everything else in, is it?

The question for many is, given the lack of progress in style and control of a game – let alone our inability to play more than one half, will people want to risk we’ll be the next Fulham or Leicester City from a few years ago and become one of those sides that roars back from Play-Off disappointment and goes a step further the following campaign.

Especially with Financial Fair Play meaning, we will lose a chunk of the squad?

Not for me to answer to be fair and although I think it would be incredibly harsh on Bruce if he didn’t get next season to complete the two proper stabs at promotion, undoubtedly he needs to hit the ground running so existing concerns don’t take on a greater emphasis.