Derby’s Fightback Has Thrown Everything Up In The Air

Three Things – Derby County

I have to confess, I began writing this piece on Tuesday afternoon, ahead of the Derby/Cardiff game, and the first draft was based entirely on the probability that Cardiff would win and thereby consign us to the play-offs. And when they took the lead, I was feeling even smugger. But Derby’s fightback has thrown everything up in the air again.

Matters could become even less clear because Fulham are playing already-relegated Sunderland on Friday evening, ahead of our weekend fixture. A Fulham win, and we’d be left needing snookers to claim second (irrespective of what Cardiff do against Hull), as Fulham would be holding a six-point lead over us with a superior goal difference. But we’ll worry about that on Saturday morning!

We have two games to go and first up is our last home game of the scheduled 23 – the visit of sometime Villa fan Gary Rowett and his play-off chasing Derby County. Derby have been well-placed for most of the season, but their annual spectacular collapse in February and March leaves them with a nervous finish to the season. At least their fate is in their own hands.

Realistically, it’s a three-way fight between Millwall, Derby and Middlesbrough for fifth and sixth, and depending on who finishes where, we could be looking at a play-off semi-final match-up against Middlesbrough – Pulis, Adama, Downing and all the connotations that brings with it.

With all of this in mind, how should we approach this weekend’s game? Do we want to play our strongest team, look for the win and keep the momentum going into the play-offs? Or would it be better to box clever and rest key players, to try and minimise the risk of injuries, ahead of a likely finish in the play-off places?

1) Box clever

Personally, I think we are destined for the play-offs. There is just too much that would need to fall in our favour to overhaul Fulham and Cardiff now. We are guaranteed (at worst) fourth place and home advantage in the second leg. So, although it’s tempting to play our best XI and keep the momentum going, it makes more sense to me that we rest up key figures (particularly those who have been injured) and save them for the play-offs. The likes of JT, Kodjia and Hutton would be better served by resting up for a couple more weeks, perhaps coming off the bench in the next two matches to build up match fitness again. There is absolutely no sense in risking further aggravation.

In any event, I keep hearing we have the best squad in the division, so there is no reason why any combination of players can’t get six points from the last two matches, and we could end up second anyway. But I still think we won’t quite make it, and the smart move would be to prepare the squad for three more matches.

I don’t see why the likes of Adomah, Snodgrass and Grealish can’t be rested – they’ve carried the load for much of the season, so let Lansbury, Whelan and others have an opportunity to stake a claim. I’ve not mentioned James Chester – although he could use a rest having been ever-present since he joined us, I can’t see him wanting to stand down, even temporarily. It’s not in his DNA!

The implications of fielding a ‘weakened’ team in terms of league rules have been made clear following Huddersfield’s decision to rest their entire first-team against Small Heath last season – “For any league match played on or after the fourth Thursday in March, any team sheet for a league game should include at least 10 outfield players who featured on the team sheet for the league match before.”

This shouldn’t affect us, given Bruce’s reluctance to play untested squad players, so expect the line-up on Saturday to look something like this: Johnstone, Bree, Chester (c), Samba, Taylor, Adomah, Whelan, Lansbury, Onomah, Hogan, Davis. The bench could be something like: Bunn, Hutton, Terry, Bjarnason, Hourihane, Grealish, Kodjia.

I’d be happy with that and would certainly expect to get something out of the game against a Derby side whose form has fallen off a cliff, despite their win on Tuesday. And even if we lose, so what? As long as there are no injuries or red cards, we’d be well-set.

2) The Gabby ‘situation’

Last home game (not including the play-off second leg). Contract expiring. Adored by many, slated by many more: what should Steve Bruce do about Gabby? This could conceivably be the last opportunity for the one-club man to step out on the hallowed B6 surface (not that it’s looking especially ‘hallowed’ at the moment!) So, will Bruce give in to sentiment and put him on the bench, bring him on for a half an hour and give chance for us to say our goodbyes in our own special way?

Or does he go one ‘better’, and give him a start and maybe even the captain’s armband, leading the boys out to a full house for one last hurrah at the place he has called home for his entire career?

Well, I’m no fan of Gabby and as far as I am concerned, his reputation has been tarnished beyond repair by the past three or four seasons. But my heart is not entirely made from stone, and given the likely situation in which we find ourselves, where is the harm in giving him a decent send off? I’ve said in the forums I never want to see him in a Villa shirt again, but I must confess I no longer see much harm in giving him a farewell. As I said, Bruce has a reluctance to ‘throw in the kids’, so I wouldn’t have thought a one-off Villa Park cameo for our longest-serving player is hardly going to knock the confidence and desire of the likes of Callum O’Hare and Rushian Hepburn-Murphy, is it?

3) Our history vs Derby

Along with ourselves, Derby were among the original founders of the Football League (I never knew that until researching this piece) and to date, we have played them 137 times in all competitions. Villa lead the head-to-head 69-44, with 24 draws. Interestingly, before the 0-0 draw at Pride Park early last season, the only other draw in the previous 26 matches was a 1-1 at the Baseball Ground in the League Cup, way back in October 1986!

Notable (and, to be fair, some less so!) recent players to have appeared for both Villa and the Rams include the late John Robson, Mark Lillis, Ian Ormondroyd, Gordon Cowans, Dean Saunders, Paul McGrath, Tommy Johnson, Gary Charles, Curtis Davies, Darren Bent and current Derby first-teamers Scott Carson and Andreas Weimann.

Notable stat: Villa’s FA Cup quarter-final against Derby in 1946 drew the largest home crowd in our history – 76,588. We lost 4-3.

Our biggest home win against the Rams was a 7-1 thrashing back in October 1889, a feat we repeated in November 1898. We’ve also won 6-0 on a couple of occasions – January 1892 and April 1906, but we shouldn’t forget the 6-0 in April 2008 when Petrov scored from a different postcode (although that was at Pride Park).

Whatever happens on Saturday, we’re still in with a shout of promotion – the minimum we should be achieving with the money spent since relegation. We’ve not been the most consistent in the run-in, but with Bruce’s play-off know-how and a full-strength squad going into the play-offs, (in the rather irritating words of the Betway advert) I’d fancy our chances.

COME ON YOU LIONS!