Three Things – Christmas edition. How to navigate the next four pivotal games
It’s fair to say that, if they’ve not exactly fallen off, then the wheels of Aston Villa’s season have loosened considerably.
To mangle the analogy further still, in Formula 1 terms, the loosened wheels might be considered an unsafe release of the team into the Premier League – young, inexperienced and very light in the striker department.
The euphoria of promotion is a distant memory as winter and the harsh reality of our place among the elite sets in. A tough run of fixtures has taken its toll – but for an unexpected point at Old Trafford against a pale imitation of the Manchester United of the last 25 years and a routine home win against a misfiring (but now upwardly mobile) Newcastle, we could be staring down the barrel of eight straight defeats.
That’s not good enough.
We were obliged to change almost our entire first-team squad this summer, through returning loanees and out-of-contract has-beens. With that number of new faces to integrate, signing ‘young and hungry’, high resale value youngsters was always going to be a high-risk strategy, even if they all worked out.
They haven’t. Yet.
At the time of writing, we sit 17th in the table, ahead of what most would consider our direct relegation rivals – Southampton, Norwich and Watford – the three teams, as fate would have it, that we face in our next three league matches. But a gap is emerging between the bottom four and the rest – we are currently three points behind 16th-placed Everton and we need to make sure that gap does not get any wider.
Something needs to be done to arrest the poor run of results, and these matches provide the perfect opportunity. So what can be done?
1.Concentration levels at the start and the end of the second half
At the start of the season, we developed a habit of conceding goals very late in games. Now, we’re conceding goals in the first few minutes after half time. It needs to stop. Concentration levels need to improve quickly and we need to be switched on from the first whistle to the last.
Such lapses as we’ve seen at the start and end of the second half of games is negligent at best and highly unprofessional at worst, and it’s hard to know why it’s happening. Dean Smith’s team talks can’t be that ineffective surely?
But neither is it rocket science to keep things tight early after the break and stay compact and organised as the game reaches its conclusion. Senior players like Heaton, Mings, Grealish and McGinn need to take responsibility and make it happen. Over to you, boys.
2.Wesley desperately needs taking out of the firing line
The Premier League is an unforgiving environment, and out-of-form, low-on-confidence players are under more scrutiny than most. Wesley is one such player.
To be fair, I don’t think our system helps him out – players are too far off him and he’s isolated, often against two defenders. Anyone would have their work cut out to produce anything worthwhile in those circumstances.
He hasn’t scored for nine matches and has managed only four in 17 this season. But his overall work rate is questionable and in the last few games, he has cut a dejected and frustrated figure. His confidence seems to have evaporated, evidenced by his solitary, off-target effort against Sheffield United at the weekend.
Unfortunately (and perhaps inexplicably) we are not well-stocked in the striking department, with Keinan Davis and Jonathan Kodjia both injury-prone, and Kodjia looking a pale imitation of the player he was before his ankle injuries.
Not signing another striker in the summer was remiss, despite Smith’s protestations that he’s happy with what we have. Until we can secure reinforcements, I’d like to see Anwar El Ghazi up front – he seems to have a knack of knowing where to be and gets into goalscoring positions far more often than Wesley.
So I’d like to see the Brazilian given a rest, but if not, then push El Ghazi inside and further forward to complement Wesley, which would mean a change of system, which conveniently segues into my third point.
3.We are set up wrong – blindingly obvious to all except DS
4-3-3 no longer seems to be working. The midfield is overrun game after game, the full-backs are frequently caught out of position and we can’t defend crosses coming into the box.
Add to that the fact Dean Smith doesn’t seem to know his best team (certainly his best midfield) and the whole thing starts to unravel. Jack Grealish seems to have found himself on the left wing and we don’t have enough bodies to play through the midfield, leaving the default tactic a high, aimless punt to Wesley, a striker utterly ill-equipped to win or hold up the ball.
In short, it’s a mess.
There is a bewildering inability or unwillingness on Smith’s part to change things, when it’s painfully obvious to the rest of us. Is it pride? Or is it pig-headedness? You tell me. But after almost half the season gone, we have lost 10 out of 17 games. That is relegation form whichever way you cut it.
We were always going to struggle this season – playing catch up on the rest of the Premier League after three years away and having to integrate virtually a whole new team. But we are not helping ourselves.
Personally, I’d advocate a 3-4-3 (or more accurately a 3-4-2-1) system. Heaton in goal with Engels, Mings and Hause across the back. Guilbert and Targett to operate as wing-backs, with Nakamba and Hourihane (or Luiz) sitting in. Grealish and McGinn further forward in support of Wesley (or maybe El Ghazi, in the absence of a realistic alternative and as referenced above).
Guilbert and Targett have the legs to get up and down as required, Nakamba and AN Other would provide the cover for a strong back three and the striker would have the support he’s been crying out for all season. Whatever happens, something has to change.
The problem is not scoring enough; rather, we concede far too many goals and we have to address this pronto.
These next four league matches are pivotal to our season. If we can get 7-9 points, we’ll be heading in the right direction. 12 would be preferable, particularly against the teams below us. Southampton at home on Saturday gives us the perfect opportunity.
UTV.
Christmas is coming, and it would be remiss of me not to remind you of mighty leader’s book, an ideal stocking-filler for that special Villan (or non-Villa, for that matter!) in your life.
“One man’s mission to inspire you to Get up. Get out. Live!”
You can see all the details, how to buy and the reviews at: The Fear.net/ and on Amazon (if you don’t have Prime, it is cheaper to buy directly and means he can donate more to the AVFC Foundation: Amazon and reviews there: Fear Conquers All – Reviews
